FuturesPro Daily Market Analysis: March 13, 2026 - HKEX Options Traders Turn Cautious Amid Broad Bearish Shift

Welcome to your daily market analysis from FuturesPro Futures Trading Workshop. Today, March 13, 2026, we observe a distinct shift in sentiment within the Hong Kong Stock Options (HKEX) market, with Dollar-Weighted Open Interest (DWOI) data signaling increasing caution among options traders.

Market Overview

The Hong Kong Stock Options market concluded the week with a notable increase in bearish sentiment, as reflected by the aggregate Dollar-Weighted Open Interest (DWOI). The total Net DWOI for the day stood at a significant negative -488.8K, marking a further decline of -41.2K from the previous trading session. This sustained negative momentum suggests that options participants are increasingly positioning for downside risks or hedging existing long positions across the board.

A deeper dive into the market breadth reveals a clear tilt towards bearishness. Out of the 112 tracked stocks, only 40 (approximately 36%) exhibited a bullish DWOI, indicating a net accumulation of call options or selling of puts. In stark contrast, a substantial majority of 69 stocks (around 62%) registered bearish DWOI, reflecting a net increase in put options or selling of calls. This Bull/Bear ratio of 36%:62% underscores a prevailing risk-off mood among options traders, with a significant preference for bearish bets. The magnitude of negative DWOI in several key constituents further amplifies this cautious outlook, suggesting that the bearish conviction is not only widespread but also concentrated in influential stocks. This collective positioning could indicate anticipated market volatility or a potential correction in the near term.

Today's Key Analysis

Meituan (3690 HK): Dominant Bearish Pressure

Meituan (3690 HK) stands out today with the most substantial bearish DWOI, plummeting by -140.5K. Trading at $75.95 with an implied volatility (IV) of 103%, this massive negative DWOI indicates a significant accumulation of bearish positions, likely through the purchase of put options or the selling of call options. Given Meituan's status as a bellwether for the Chinese tech and consumer services sector, such aggressive bearish positioning suggests deep-seated concerns among options traders regarding its near-term prospects. This could be driven by regulatory uncertainties, competitive pressures, or broader macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending. The high IV further implies that traders are anticipating significant price swings, potentially to the downside, in the coming days. Investors holding Meituan shares should be mindful of this strong options-based bearish signal.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): Continued Downside Expectations

Alibaba Group (9988 HK), another tech giant, registered the second-largest bearish DWOI at -108.5K. Its share price closed at $132.50 with an IV of 77%. The consistent bearish flow in Alibaba options, following a similar trend observed in other major tech names, points to a collective apprehension about the sector's performance. Options traders appear to be bracing for further declines or protecting existing long exposures. This sustained bearish DWOI in a stock of Alibaba's caliber can exert psychological pressure on the underlying share price, as it reflects a strong consensus among sophisticated options participants. The moderate IV suggests that while downside is expected, the market might not be anticipating extreme volatility as seen in some other counters.

PetroChina (857 HK): A Lone Bullish Outlier

In stark contrast to the prevailing bearish sentiment, PetroChina (857 HK) emerged as the top bullish stock, recording a remarkable +105.2K in Net DWOI. Trading at $10.67 with an elevated IV of 101%, this substantial bullish positioning indicates strong conviction among options traders for an upward movement in the stock. This could be driven by expectations of rising oil prices, positive company-specific news, or a rotation into traditional energy sectors amidst broader market uncertainty. The high IV suggests that traders are anticipating significant upside volatility. This bullish divergence in PetroChina warrants close attention, as it could signal a sector-specific opportunity or a defensive play within a generally cautious market. The sheer magnitude of bullish DWOI makes it a significant outlier on an otherwise bearish day.

CNOOC (883 HK): Sustained Energy Sector Optimism

Following PetroChina's lead, CNOOC (883 HK) also showed significant bullish DWOI with +34.1K, trading at $29.76 with an IV of 87%. This reinforces the theme of positive sentiment within the energy sector, suggesting that options traders are collectively betting on continued strength in oil and gas producers. The bullish DWOI in CNOOC, combined with PetroChina, indicates that this is likely a sector-wide play rather than an isolated event. Investors might be anticipating strong earnings reports, favorable policy developments, or a sustained increase in global energy demand. The elevated IV points to expected price movements, aligning with the bullish outlook.

Complete Data Table

Sentiment Reversal Stocks

Today's data reveals several notable sentiment reversals, indicating a shift in options traders' outlook for these specific stocks. These reversals can be particularly insightful as they highlight potential turning points or increased uncertainty.

• From Bullish to Bearish:
• 12 (Henderson Land): Previously bullish, now showing a bearish DWOI of -230. This suggests a change in perception, possibly due to sector-specific concerns or company news.
• 17 (New World Dev): Similar to Henderson Land, New World Development has flipped to bearish with -141 DWOI, indicating a deteriorating outlook for property developers.
• 66 (MTR Corp): MTR Corp, a typically stable counter, has turned bearish with -368 DWOI. This could imply concerns over passenger traffic, operational costs, or broader economic slowdown affecting public transport.
• 823 (Link REIT): As a major REIT, Link REIT's shift to bearish (-434 DWOI) is significant, reflecting potential worries about interest rates, property valuations, or retail consumption.
• 992 (Lenovo Group): Lenovo's reversal to bearish (-3.2K DWOI) suggests growing pessimism among options traders, possibly related to PC market demand, competition, or supply chain issues.
• 2238 (AAC Tech): AAC Tech's move to bearish (-58 DWOI) could be linked to concerns over smartphone component demand or competitive pressures.
• 2313 (Shenzhou Intl): This textile manufacturer's sentiment reversal to bearish (-662 DWOI) might reflect challenges in the apparel industry, such as inventory issues or slowing consumer spending.
• 2388 (BOC Hong Kong): A major banking stock turning bearish (-69 DWOI) could signal concerns about the banking sector's profitability, asset quality, or interest rate outlook.
• 2611 (China Everbright Bank): Another banking stock, China Everbright Bank, also reversed to bearish (-12 DWOI), reinforcing the cautious stance on the financial sector.

These reversals, particularly in the property, tech, and financial sectors, collectively paint a picture of broadening caution beyond just the mega-cap tech names. They suggest that options traders are reassessing fundamental outlooks across various industries.

Technical Outlook

The Dollar-Weighted Open Interest data for March 13, 2026, presents a clear bearish short-term outlook for the broader HKEX market. The total Net DWOI of -488.8K, coupled with a significant decline from the previous day, indicates a strengthening conviction among options traders for downside movement or increased hedging against potential losses. The overwhelming majority of bearish stocks (62%) versus bullish stocks (36%) further solidifies this view.

Key bearish plays in giants like Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) suggest that the technology and consumer discretionary sectors could face continued pressure. The magnitude of DWOI in these names implies that these are not minor adjustments but rather significant directional bets.

However, the strong bullish DWOI in energy counters such as PetroChina (857 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK) provides a notable counter-narrative. This could point to a sector rotation, where capital is flowing into traditional, perceived-as-safer, or commodity-linked sectors amidst broader market uncertainty. This divergence suggests that while the overall market may face headwinds, specific sectors might offer resilience or even upside potential.

For the immediate 1-3 day horizon, we anticipate continued downside bias for the Hang Seng Index and its major constituents, especially in the tech and property sectors. Traders should remain vigilant for increased volatility, as indicated by elevated IVs in several key stocks. The energy sector, however, might show relative strength. Careful risk management and selective long/short strategies are advised.

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Risk Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or engage in any investment strategy. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading can work against you as well as for you. You could lose more than your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor to consider your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance. All information presented is based on data available at the time of writing and may be subject to change. FuturesPro Futures Trading Workshop and its analysts are not liable for any losses incurred from decisions made based on this information.