FuturesPro Futures Trading Workshop: HKEX Options Daily Market Analysis - March 25, 2026

Bearish Momentum Deepens as DWOI Signals Strong Negative Outlook, Tech Giants Under Pressure

Hong Kong, March 25, 2026 – The Hong Kong stock options market closed today with a distinct bearish bias, as evidenced by a significant negative Dollar-Weighted Open Interest (DWOI) across the board. FuturesPro's proprietary analysis indicates a market grappling with persistent selling pressure, particularly in key technology and financial sectors. This in-depth report provides a comprehensive overview of today's options activity, highlighting significant shifts and potential implications for the coming days.

Market Overview

Today's HKEX options market data reveals a further entrenchment of bearish sentiment. The Total Net DWOI stood at a substantial -442.8K, marking a significant increase of +208.8K from the previous day's reading. This substantial negative figure, coupled with its expansion, underscores a growing conviction among options traders for downside movements. The market's breadth was overwhelmingly skewed towards the bearish side, with 74 out of 112 tracked stocks exhibiting negative DWOI, compared to only 35 showing bullish sentiment. This translates to a Bull/Bear ratio of 31%:66%, indicating that for every bullish stock, there were more than two bearish counterparts.

The magnitude of negative DWOI in several large-cap stocks suggests that institutional players and sophisticated traders are actively positioning for further declines. While there were pockets of bullish activity, they were largely overshadowed by the concentrated bearish bets in some of the market's heaviest hitters. The overall picture painted by today's DWOI is one of caution and a prevailing expectation of continued weakness in the near term. Implied Volatility (IV) across many bearish stocks remained elevated, suggesting that traders are pricing in potential for larger price swings, further reflecting uncertainty and risk aversion.

Today's Key Analysis

1. Tencent Holdings (700): Bearish Pressure Intensifies

Tencent, a bellwether for the Hong Kong tech sector, saw a significant -76.8K Net DWOI today, placing it among the top three most bearish stocks. This substantial negative positioning, coupled with its price of $505.50 and an IV of 95%, indicates strong conviction among options traders that the stock faces further downward pressure. As one of the largest constituents of the Hang Seng Index, sustained bearish sentiment in Tencent can have a ripple effect across the broader market. The high DWOI suggests that a large volume of put options were bought or call options were sold, reflecting expectations of either a continued decline or limited upside potential. Investors should monitor Tencent closely, as its performance often dictates the direction of the broader tech segment.

2. Alibaba Group Holding (9988): Deepening Negative Outlook

Alibaba, another tech giant, experienced the most significant bearish DWOI today, with a staggering -105.1K Net DWOI. Trading at $128.90 with an IV of 133%, this stock is clearly a focal point for bearish options activity. The extremely high negative DWOI suggests aggressive positioning for a decline, possibly driven by concerns over regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressures, or broader economic headwinds affecting consumer spending. The elevated IV further implies that traders are anticipating substantial price movements. This level of bearish interest in Alibaba is a strong signal that market participants believe the stock has more room to fall, and any rebound attempts might be met with selling pressure.

3. Meituan (3690) & Xiaomi (1810): Consumer Tech Under Siege

The consumer technology sector, represented by Meituan (3690) and Xiaomi (1810), also faced intense bearish sentiment. Meituan registered a -33.9K Net DWOI, while Xiaomi saw an even more pronounced -79.4K Net DWOI. Both stocks exhibit high Implied Volatility (183% for Meituan, 193% for Xiaomi), indicating that options traders are pricing in significant risk and potential for large price swings. The concentrated bearish DWOI in these names suggests concerns over their growth prospects, profitability, or competitive landscape. Given their prominence in the consumer and hardware segments, continued weakness here could signal broader economic slowdown concerns impacting discretionary spending in China.

4. PetroChina (857): A Lone Bullish Outlier

Amidst the widespread bearishness, PetroChina (857) stands out as the most bullish stock today, recording a remarkable +103.9K Net DWOI. Trading at $10.72 with an IV of 162%, this strong positive DWOI suggests a robust expectation of upside movement. This bullish conviction could be driven by rising oil prices, positive company-specific news, or a rotation of funds into traditional energy sectors as a defensive play against broader market volatility. The high IV in PetroChina, despite its bullish DWOI, implies that while traders expect an upward move, they also anticipate it to be volatile. This makes PetroChina an interesting counter-trend play to watch in the coming sessions.

Complete Data Table

Whale Alert Analysis

Today's data did not explicitly flag any "Whale Alert" events, which typically denote unusually large, single-block trades that significantly impact DWOI. However, the sheer magnitude of negative DWOI in stocks like Alibaba (9988) at -105.1K and Tencent (700) at -76.8K, along with Xiaomi (1810) at -79.4K, strongly suggests that large institutional players are driving this bearish sentiment. These are not merely retail-driven movements but likely reflect sophisticated strategies by funds or large proprietary trading desks. The concentrated negative DWOI in these market heavyweights indicates a high-conviction bearish stance from significant market participants, which could exert sustained downward pressure on these stocks and the broader market.

Sentiment Reversal Stocks

Four stocks experienced a notable shift in sentiment today:

• 16 (Sun Hung Kai Properties): Flipped from Bearish to BULLISH with +28 Net DWOI. This could signal a bottoming process or renewed interest in the property sector.
• 66 (MTR Corporation): Reversed from Bearish to BULLISH with +137 Net DWOI. A positive shift for infrastructure and public transport, possibly reflecting improving economic activity or defensive positioning.
• 3328 (Bank of Communications): Moved from Bearish to BULLISH with +403 Net DWOI. This positive turn for a major bank might indicate expectations of stable financial performance or attractive valuations.
• 6862 (Haidilao International Holding): Flipped from Bullish to BEARISH with -1.1K Net DWOI. This is a significant reversal for the restaurant chain, suggesting concerns about consumer spending or operational challenges. This shift warrants close monitoring as it could signal a change in outlook for the F&B sector.

These reversals are crucial as they can indicate early signs of shifting narratives or sector rotations. The bullish reversals in 16, 66, and 3328 could hint at defensive plays or a rotation into value/traditional sectors, while the bearish reversal in 6862 highlights potential vulnerability in consumer discretionary spending.

Technical Outlook

The short-term (1-3 day) technical outlook for the HKEX market, as derived from today's DWOI data, is decidedly bearish. The overwhelming negative DWOI, coupled with the high concentration of bearish bets in key large-cap tech stocks, suggests that the market is likely to face continued downward pressure. The significant increase in total negative DWOI from the previous day reinforces this outlook.

Traders should anticipate potential further declines in the benchmark indices, driven by weakness in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Resistance levels for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) may hold firm, with any rallies likely to be short-lived and met with selling pressure. The elevated implied volatility across many bearish stocks also points to increased market uncertainty and the potential for larger price swings to the downside.

The bullish outliers, such as PetroChina (857), might offer some counter-cyclical opportunities, but their individual strength is unlikely to offset the broad market's bearish momentum. Investors should maintain a cautious stance, focusing on risk management and potentially exploring hedging strategies or short positions in heavily bearish-weighted stocks.

For more in-depth analysis and real-time insights into the HKEX options market, visit www.FuturesPro.com.hk or contact us directly via WhatsApp 92982881 Alex.

Risk Disclaimer

*This report is prepared by FuturesPro Futures Trading Workshop for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or derivatives. The information contained herein is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FuturesPro Futures Trading Workshop and its affiliates, employees, or representatives may have positions in the securities or derivatives mentioned in this report. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.*