US Options Analysis Mar 23 2026: 26 Bullish vs 10 Bearish — Index Hedging Persists While Individual Stocks Stay Bullish

March 23, 2026 (Monday): Bullish Momentum Dominates — 26 Bullish vs 10 Bearish

Hong Kong SAR — The US stock options market on March 23, 2026 showed a decisive bullish tilt with 26 out of 36 tracked securities showing bullish DWOI positioning versus 10 bearish. Despite the overall bullish count, key index ETFs remain firmly in bearish territory, suggesting institutional hedging continues alongside selective bullish bets on individual names.

Index ETFs: Persistent Bearish Hedging

All major index ETFs maintained bearish positioning, indicating institutional-scale hedging activity remains elevated.

SPY closed at $655.38 (+1.1% vs Mar 20) with net DWOI remaining deeply negative at -931K (daily change: 1.7M). This signals continued large-scale put protection by institutional investors, consistent with the defensive posture observed throughout the past week.

QQQ mirrored the bearish stance at $588.00 (+1.0%) with DWOI at -553K, reinforcing the view that tech-heavy indices face continued selling pressure from options market makers.

VIX Analysis: Elevated Volatility Expectations

VIX led the bullish rankings at $26.15 with net DWOI of 1.5M and IV at 128%. This confirms traders expect further market turbulence ahead. The bullish VIX positioning combined with bearish index ETFs paints a picture of institutional defensiveness — large players are paying up for volatility protection while maintaining downside hedges on broad indices.

Tech & Growth Stocks: Sector Breakdown

Among the 9 major tech stocks tracked, 8 are bullish and 1 are bearish. NVDA maintained its dominant bullish position with net DWOI at 1.9M (+1.7% price change) and IV at 75%. The sustained bullish DWOI in NVDA suggests institutional conviction in the AI trade remains strong, with options market makers positioned for further upside. TSLA remained bullish at $380.85 (+3.5%) with DWOI at 416K and elevated IV of 162%, reflecting continued speculative interest.

SPY Options Deep Dive (Apr 17 Expiration)

The SPY options chain for the April 17 monthly expiration reveals heavy put accumulation below the current price level, with key support defined by concentrated put OI. Call writers appear to be capping upside potential, creating a negative gamma environment that could amplify moves in either direction.

Key observations:

• OI Distribution: Put OI dominates below ATM, creating a "wall" of support/resistance
• IV Skew: Put IV premium over call IV indicates demand for downside protection
• DWOI Pattern: Negative DWOI concentration near ATM suggests market makers are net short delta
• Volume: Elevated put volume relative to calls confirms the hedging narrative

Whale Activity & Unusual Volume

Significant volume-to-OI ratios were detected, indicating potential institutional or whale-level activity:

These extreme ratios often precede significant price moves. When volume dramatically exceeds open interest, it typically signals new position initiation rather than position management, warranting close monitoring for follow-through.

High IV Alert

The following stocks exhibit elevated implied volatility, suggesting the market is pricing in significant upcoming moves:

• AVGO IV 174% — BULLISH (DWOI: 112K)
• TSLA IV 162% — BULLISH (DWOI: 416K)
• VIX IV 128% — BULLISH (DWOI: 1.5M)
• SMCI IV 108% — BEARISH (DWOI: -215K)
• MSTR IV 93% — BULLISH (DWOI: 57K)

Elevated IV combined with directional DWOI can signal conviction trades by sophisticated participants.

Sentiment Reversals (vs Mar 20)

3 securities changed sentiment direction since the previous trading day, indicating active repositioning:

• META $604.06: BEARISH → BULLISH
• MSTR $138.20: BEARISH → BULLISH
• SPX $6581.00: BEARISH → BULLISH

Top 5 Bullish DWOI

Top 5 Bearish DWOI

5-Day DWOI Trend Analysis

The 5-day DWOI trend chart reveals a persistent bearish bias in index ETFs while individual stocks maintain bullish positioning. The divergence between index-level bearishness and stock-level bullishness has been a defining characteristic of the past week, suggesting a stock-pickers market where sector and name selection matter more than broad market direction.

The sentiment count trend shows the market has maintained a bullish majority throughout the week, with the current 26:10 ratio representing the strongest bullish reading this week.

Market Outlook & Key Takeaways

1. 1Index Hedging Persists: SPY and QQQ maintain deeply negative DWOI, signaling institutional hedging remains the dominant theme at the index level
2. 2Individual Stock Bullishness: 26 of 36 tracked securities show bullish DWOI — a clear majority suggesting selective risk appetite remains healthy
3. 3AI/Tech Conviction: NVDA continues to lead bullish positioning with 1.9M DWOI, confirming sustained institutional interest in the AI theme
4. 4Volatility: VIX bullish positioning at 1.5M DWOI suggests traders expect continued turbulence
5. 5Whale Activity: 12 stocks showed extreme Vol/OI ratios — potential catalysts for near-term moves

*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Options trading involves significant risk of loss.*